Reminder Why Bibi Went to Congress: P5+1 Concessions to Iran in Nuclear Negotiations




New York, NY - Today, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is releasing a new analysis of the current status of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. The analysis compares the positions of the U.S. and Iran on each of the core components of an emerging nuclear accord.

UANI's resource analyzes the evolution of U.S. and Iranian regime positions on centrifuges and enrichment capacity, the Arak heavy water reactor, advanced centrifuges and R&D, the Fordow underground enrichment facility, Iran's ballistic missile program, and resolving allegations about nuclear weaponization activities.

  1. Duration of Agreement: When Will Be the "Sunset" of a Deal?
     
  2. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Chief U.S. nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman: "We believe the duration of this should be at least double-digits [in years]. And we believe it should be for quite a long time."
    Reports indicate that a final deal will restrict Iran's nuclear program for a period of 10 years, at which point these restrictions will be gradually lifted and Iran will be able to resume expanding its nuclear program. 5 years later, all restrictions will be lifted and Iran will be permitted to expand and develop its nuclear program as it sees fit.

    Former Iranian nuclear spokesman Hossein Mousavian: "The final agreement, if defined well, can last for three to five years, and then Iranian nuclear issue will be in its routine path."
    Summary: Iran Will Be Able to Expand Its Nuclear Program in 10 Years
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN
       

  3. Centrifuges: The Size of Iran's Uranium Enrichment Program and the Speed to Produce Fissile Material
     
  4. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Then-White House Press Secretary Jay Carney: "Iran does not need nearly the centrifuge capacity that it has today... As part of a comprehensive solution, we will require that Iran dismantle a significant amount of its nuclear infrastructure related to uranium enrichment."
    Iran is expected to maintain operation of 6,500-plus centrifugesunder a final agreement--about two-thirds of the 10,000 centrifuges Iran currently operates. This compares to the Administration's initial position that Iran should only be allowed to operatea few hundred centrifuges. Furthermore, it no longer appears Iran will be required to dismantle any of the  20,000 IR-1 centrifuges and 1,000 advanced centrifuges it currently possesses.
    Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei: "On the issue of enrichment, their [the P5+1] goal is to make the Islamic Republic satisfied with 10,000 SWUs [separative work units, the measurement used in enrichment]. But they have begun from 500, 1000. Approximately, 10,000 SWUs are the product of 10,000 centrifuges-the ones that we already have. This is their goal. Officials tell us that we need about 190,000 SWUs [equal to approximately 190,000 centrifuges]."
    Summary: Iran Will Retain Industrial-Scale Enrichment Capacity
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  5. Arak Heavy Water Reactor: The Plutonium Path to the Bomb

  6. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    President Obama: "They certainly don't need a heavy-water reactor at Arak in order to have a peaceful nuclear program."

    Iran will reportedly be allowed to retain its heavy-water reactor at Arak. Initially, the administration demanded the dismantling of the reactor but now it appears Iran will only be required to redesign the reactor to produce less plutonium.
    Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi: "Your actions and words show you don't want us to have the Arak heavy water reactor which means you want to deprive us of our rights. But you should know that it is a red line which we will never cross... We want to have more heavy water reactors in future."
    Summary: Iran Will Be Allowed to Retain Its Heavy Water Reactor
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  7. Advanced Centrifuges and R&D: Revolutionizing Iran's Breakout Capacity
  8. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    President Obama: "They don't need some of the advanced centrifuges that they currently possess in order to have a limited, peaceful nuclear program."
    According to reports, work on Iran's existing advanced centrifuge models would be permitted to continue. If put into operation, these centrifuges would dramatically reduce Iran's breakout time to only a matter of weeks, if not days.
    Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi: "All research into a new generation of centrifuges will continue."
    Summary: Iran's R&D on Advanced Centrifuges Will Continue
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  9. Fordow Enrichment Facility: Iran's Fortified, Underground Breakout Site
     
  10. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    President Obama: "Now, in terms of specifics, we know that they don't need to have an underground, fortified facility like Fordo[w] in order to have a peaceful nuclear program."
    Instead of dismantling and closing down the enrichment facility at Fordow--as the Administration initially demanded--it appears Fordow will be re-purposed and might beturned into a research facility.
    President Rouhani: It is "100 percent" a "red line" for Iran to dismantle any nuclear facilities.
    Summary: Iran Will Be Able to Keep Fordow
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  11. Ballistic Missile Program: The Delivery Vehicle for an Iranian Bomb
     
  12. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Then-White House Press Secretary Jay Carney: "They have to deal with matters related to their ballistic missile program that are included in the United Nations Security Council resolution that is part of explicitly, according to the Joint Plan of Action, the comprehensive resolution negotiation."
    The P5+1 apparently no longer seeks to restrict or rollback Iran's ballistic missile program, despite its suspected purpose of creating a delivery vehicle for a nuclear payload.
    Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi: "Defense matters [i.e. Iran's ballistic missile program] are non-negotiable and are one of our red lines."
    Summary: Iran Will Have No Limitations on Its Ballistic Missile Program
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  13. Weaponization Allegations: Iran Stonewalls Investigation into Its Nuclear Weapons Research
     
  14. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    U.S. Ambassador to the IAEA Joseph McManus: "Satisfactory resolution of PMD [possible military dimension] issues will be critical to any long-term comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear issue."
    In a final deal, the P5+1 is expected not to require Iran to admit to the covert work it has done on nuclear weaponization. Instead, a "creative" formula will be found "to satisfy those who want Iran to come clean about any atomic bomb research and those who say this is simply unrealistic."

    Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi: "We don't have any more problems with IAEA on the nuclear issue. There are no more questions that we haven't answered. In other words, we can say Iran's nuclear activities is a closed case already."
    Summary: Iran Will Not Have to Come Clean on Its Weaponization Activities
    ADVANTAGE: IRAN


  15. Inspection & Verification: Verifying Compliance and Detecting Undeclared Nuclear Activities

  16. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken: "What has to result from any agreement is the strongest, most intrusive inspection and access program that any country has ever seen, because Iran has forfeited the trust of the international community."
    One of the key remaining disputes between the negotiating parties is the scope of inspections.
    Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi: "We will not accept any special inspection or process (exclusive to Iran's nuclear program)."
    Summary: In Dispute


  17. Sanctions Relief: Timing and Scope of Sanctions Easing
     
  18. USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken: "In exchange, the international community would provide Iran with phased sanctions relief tied to verifiable actions on its part. Such relief would be structured to be easily reversed so that sanctions could be quickly re-imposed if Iran were to violate its commitments."
    One of the key remaining disputes between the negotiating parties.
    Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif: "All the sanctions [including those tied to non-nuclear matters such as terrorism and human rights] must be lifted at once."
    Summary: In Dispute


  19. Stockpile of Enriched Uranium: How Many Bombs Iran Can Produce
    USA
    Current Status in Negotiations
    Iran
    Senior Obama Administration official: "The issue we have to explore in this set of negotiations is whether there is some possible enrichment capability and stockpile that would be consistent with the assurances we need that Iran is not in a position to develop a nuclear weapon without the international community having a long lead time and notice in advance."  

    There have been reportsthat "Iran has tentatively agreed to ship much of its huge stockpile of uranium to Russia... Under the proposed agreement, the Russians would convert the uranium into specialized fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran's only commercial reactor." Iran has rejected these reports.  

    Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: "Of course we will negotiate regarding the form, amount, and various levels of [uranium] enrichment, but the shipping of materials out of the country is our red line."   

    Summary: In Dispute

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